Yearly Predictions, 2021


Annualized GDP Growth < 4% — 85%

US Politics

F.6 “Nancy’s farewell tour” — Pelosi will announce retirement: 30%


SpaceX successfully launches Starship: 90%

International Relations:

US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 95%


Sci-Hub is still relatively easily accessible from within US at end of year (even typing in IP directly is relatively easy): 97%


I visit Oxford again: 85%

Longer Term Predictions (From previous years)

There will not be a large (1,000 people or more) uninvited ground invasion of a foreign country by the US by 2025: 87% [2020: 85%]



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