Scoring my 2020 Predictions

US Politics:

True — The Senate Acquits Trump: 85%
False / False — Trump is removed from office / barred from running in 2020: 2% / 1%
False — They don’t have the trial, or it’s delayed until after 2020, or they pick some stupid other option… : 13.5%

Israeli Elections:

True — V.11a Netanyahu is prime minister after the Israeli elections: 55% (I called this one before Vox.)


True— V.7 The number of people in global poverty will fall: 70% {60%}

Science and Technology

False — (In 2021, however…) V.12 No gene drives to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes will be launched in any part of the world 85% {90 percent} (Mostly agree, but Vox isn’t really thinking about other groups doing small replications, etc.)

Animal welfare and the environment

Right — V.16 Beyond Meat will outperform the general stock market 55% {70 percent} (Markets are efficient, growth is expected, and underperformance shocks are common.)

New Long-term Predictions:

There will not be a large (1,000 people or more) uninvited ground invasion of a foreign country by the US by 2025: 85%

Prior Long-term predictions:

False — (2017) There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running): 5% (I said 70% in 2017, then 60% in 2019)


False— I take a job (not just contracting) in 2020: 40%
True/True/True- My Google Scholar H-Index hits 7/8/9: 80%/40%/15%
Invalidated — I attend 2020 Bxx Mxx: 50% (Cancelled)
False — I get accepted to Exxx 2020: 35%
True — I continue working with F: 85%
True / True— I submit the Postdoc Paper / it is accepted for publication in 2020: 95% / 85%



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