Scoring my 2019 Predictions


It’s a lot easier to do these predictions in an election year, but I have a few easy-to-quantify things I will mention. Also, since Israeli elections are coming up (in April,) and I’m in Israel, I’m going to risk making a fool of myself and predict a few things on those. [Israeli Elections are going to their third round... I wouldn’t have forecast that.]


False: VFP: The United Kingdom will leave the European Union: 65% {80%} (I think an extension past end of March is likely, and cancellation or extensions pushing past Jan 1, 2020 are possible.) [I did better than VOX, but still missed this.]


(Resolving this is a bit weird; I’m giving myself some slack and scoring only on the basis of the first election. And given that, I scraped by with many of these)


True — VFP: Malaria deaths will decrease 75% {80%} (Strongly based on their guess — they know more than I do about this.) [Unresolved — The report that covers 2018 came out December 2019 — Edit: Vox says true, which is likely correct, so I’ll score it.]


FALSE — VFP: Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain: 95% {95%} [Wegmans is a national store, I think…? [Edit: Vox says the stores that sell it everywhere are not national chains. I got caught on the same technicality they did.]


True — VFP: Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018: 65% {60%} [As of November, it’s a big difference, so this is effectively certain.]

My earlier long-term predictions:

(2017) There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) — 60% (was 70%. I’m thinking about total popular vote, and given the structure of primaries, this is a higher bar that I initially thought about. Still, there are a LOT of republicans who hate him, and many more public figures who would switch over if they weren’t scared of what happens when Trump wins.)
(I was optimistic, but we’ll see.) [Changing my mind for next year — this isn’t happening]


True — Still living in Israel at end of year: 97%



Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store