My 2019 Predictions

Politics

It’s a lot easier to do these predictions in an election year, but I have a few easy-to-quantify things I will mention. Also, since Israeli elections are coming up (in April,) and I’m in Israel, I’m going to risk making a fool of myself and predict a few things on those.

International:

VFP: The United Kingdom will leave the European Union: 65% {80%} (I think an extension past end of March is likely, and cancellation or extensions pushing past Jan 1, 2020 are possible.)

Israel

Netanyahu is prime minister after the Israeli elections: 80%

EA-Related:

VFP: Malaria deaths will decrease 75% {80%} (Strongly based on their guess — they know more than I do about this.)

Tech:

VFP: Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain: 95% {95%}

Environment:

VFP: Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018: 65% {60%}

My earlier long-term predictions:

(2017) There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) — 60% (was 70%. I’m thinking about total popular vote, and given the structure of primaries, this is a higher bar that I initially thought about. Still, there are a LOT of republicans who hate him, and many more public figures who would switch over if they weren’t scared of what happens when Trump wins.)

Personal

Still living in Israel at end of year: 97%

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