My 2018 Predictions

A hazy future means high uncertainty gets quantified!

Just to clarify what I’m doing here, I’m using my best guesses and knowledge to make predictions about a set of future events. This follows the urgings of Eliezer Yudkowsky, and the example of Scott over at SSC, who does this yearly — and it follows in the footsteps of my participation in the Good Judgement Project.

US Politics

Interestingly, these are all gonna be correlated in a way the scoring won’t account for. Still, for predictions, it’s put up or shut up.
(I’m waiting for Scott to list what 2018 Election categories he’s predicting. For now;)


I SUCK AT THIS, as the past two years should make clear. (And if you think you can do better, why aren’t you rich? (Alfred, you don’t need to respond, I know.)) But I still think there’s a real chance that the bubbles pop — and even if they don’t, I expect the pace of growth to slow once the regular capital markets have put in their money.

Global Catastrophic Risks

AI Progress indicators -

Scott’s Prediction Topics (His Numbers)

1. Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 98% (95%)
2. Democrats take control of the House in midterms: 55% (80%)
3. Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms: 45% (50%)
4. Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him): 20% (50%) [I assume almost immediately being relaunched by appointing him an independent counsel or equivalent after firing doesn’t count. If it does, I probably agree with Scott.]
5. Mueller does not indict Trump: 80% (70%) [I can’t see him indicting Trump. I think there will be a report with arguably indictable offenses, but even so it very well may come out in 2019.]
6. PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of year: 60% (60%) [Biden and Warren are more viable choices, and Bernie is really old. But this is predicting the prediction, so I’m less certain about this than I am that he won’t be the nominee.]
7. PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year: 95% (95%)
9. Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed: 80% (70%)
10. No major health-care reform legislation gets passed: 90% (95%)
11. No large-scale deportation of Dreamers: 95% (90%)
12. US government shuts down again sometime in 2018: 60% (50%)
13. Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year: 95% (90%)
14. …lower than 40%: 60% (50%)
15. GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research: 70% (80%) [This is WAY outside my wheelhouse, here.]



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