Grading 2022 Predictions
I have been busy, but I need to grade previous year predictions, so here goes — not all are graded or final, since we don’t have all of the data yet.
US Politics
True — AR.7 Republicans take control of the House: 85% (AR: 85%)
False — AR.9 Republicans take control of the Senate: 80% (AR: 75%)
False — Republicans take control of both: 79%
True — AR.2 Biden is president on Dec 31: 97% (AR: 95%)
True — AR.3 Pelosi is Speaker on Dec 31: 95% (AR: 95%)
True — AR.8 Ron DeSantis clearly wins FL governor re-election: 85% (AR: 80%)
False — V.1/AR.16 Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court: 60% (Vox: 55 percent, AR: 35%)
False— AR.17 There will be a Supreme court vacancy filled: 50% (AR: 305%)
False / False/ False — V.2 US government will renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research : This is complex, and won’t take a binary outcome. Some legislation restricting this, either in the US or internationally, passes: 80%. NIH issues new regulations or guidance: 50%. A new actual ban on domestic GoF work comes into effect before 1/1/2023: 20%. (Vox: 40 percent)
True — V.3 A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized or legalized in at least one new US state: 60% (Vox:75 percent)
True — AR.14: Traffic fatalities decrease in NYC vs 2021: 40% (AR: 55%)
False — AR.22 Stacy Abrams clearly wins GA governor election: 35% (AR: 25%)
False — AR.23 Biden announces solar panels will be installed on white house grounds: 15% (AR: 25%)
International
False — AR.12 a G20 politician is killed by a non-state drone attack: 25% (AR: 65%)
True — AR.21 Russia clearly invades Ukraine using military force: 20% (AR: 30%)
Economics
AR.31 Solar pv will account for a plurality of new US electricity capacity: 80% (AR: 90%)
False — AR.34 US gdp grows every quarter [Seasonally adjusted]: 90% (AR: 80%)
True — AR.35 Facebook remains world’s biggest social media firm by monthly active users: 95% (AR: 80%)
TBD — AR.36 Coal generates at least 20% of USA’s electricity: 20% (AR: 80%)
TBD — AR.37 Solar will see its biggest single year of total US capacity additions ever: (AR: 75%)
False — AR.38 Bitcoin above $30k on Dec 31: 80% (AR: 75%)
Personal
Never Happened — (To-do)
Longer Term Predictions
New: Chance of another pandemic on the scale of Covid-19, or greater, occurring in the next 10 years (By 1/1/2032): 6%
(Note: 25%, from the link, is a dumb guess — especially given greater global sensitivity / alertness in the near future, but also, as I said long before COVID-19, people seem particularly bad at looking at base rates and other factors on the risk of extreme pandemics.)
Older predictions, updated to this year:
There will not be a large (1,000 people or more) uninvited ground invasion of a foreign country by the US by 2025: 92% [2020: 85%, 2021: 87%]
Nuclear weapons will not be used before 2025: 95% [2020:85%, 2021: 91%]
No new countries (with the possible exception of Israel) will test or otherwise announce possession of nuclear weapons before 2025: 80% [2020: 80%, 2021: 75%]
Likely hit the lowest number, TBD — (Russia/Ukraine is around 200k deaths so far) — There will be no new inter-state war killing more than 1m / 500k / 250k people before 2025: 93% / 88% / 70% [2020:80% / 75% / 40%, 2021: 90% / 80% / 55%]
SpaceX will land a rocket / a human on Mars by 2030: 50% / 15% [2020: 40% / 20%, 2021: 45% / 20% (It seems increasingly likely that they can’t get there in Starship without humans on board, but they could launch something in Starship that they then send to Mars, which I think counts for part 1.)]
SpaceX will still have significant plans for going to Mars in 2030: 92% [2020:75%, 2021: 90%]
Based on JThompson:
JT.1 Very few people will be using flying taxis, other than those already using conventional flying taxis.
Fewer than 25,000 flying cars are sold in 2029: 70% [2020:60%, 2021: 60%]
JT.2 Very few people will be being driven by autonomous vehicles.
Less than 5%/25%/75% of cars manufactured in the US in 2029 will be capable of autonomous operation (level 5:) 3% / 15% / 50% [2020:15%/40%/85%, 2021: 3% / 20% / 55%]
Autonomous L5 operation will not yet be legal in most US States: 10% [2020:40%, 2021: 10%]
JT.3 Most cars will be powered by internal combustion engines.
More than 5%/25%/50%/90% of cars sold in 2029 will be internal combustion: 60% / 35% / 10% / 2% [2020: 90%/65%/55%/15%, 2021: 80% / 55% / 15% / 10%]
Broken , Removed — (It was explained to me that these were underspecified and possibly obviated already.) JT.4 Batteries will be only a little better than they are at the moment.
JT.5 People all over the world will be richer and healthier.
Global average lifespan will be higher than in 2019: 87% [2020: 80%, 2021:85%]
Fewer than 0.5 billion will live in absolute poverty: 75% [2020:75%, 75%]
Median per capita global income in 2029 (in USD as of 2020,) will be above $5,000/$10,000/$15,000: 90% / 60% / 20% [2020:85%/65%/25%, 2021: 90% / 60% / 20%]
JT.6 Population growth will stabilize, except in Africa.
In 2029, global population growth outside of Africa will be below 0.5%/0.25%/0%: 70% / 50% / 20% [2020:60%/40%/10%, 2021: 65% / 45% / 10%]
In 2029, population growth in Africa will be below 1%/0.75%: 95% / 80%[2020: 95%/80%, 2021: 95% / 75%]
Looking increasingly likely — A song written via computer-generation of lyrics and music, and performed fully digitally without a human singer / musician, not (necessarily) involving AGI or general ability to communicate with others, will make the billboard top-100 (Or will qualify based on sales and play-time, but be ruled out for technical reasons, such as because it is computer generated,) by 2030/2040: 80%/ 85% [2020: 70%/90%, 2021: 70%/ 75%]
