Grading 2021 Predictions


Likely — Annualized GDP Growth < 4% — 85%

US Politics

False — F.6 “Nancy’s farewell tour” — Pelosi will announce retirement: 30%


True — SpaceX successfully launches Starship: 90%

International Relations:

True — US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 95%


True — Sci-Hub is still relatively easily accessible from within US at end of year (even typing in IP directly is relatively easy): 97%


False — I visit Oxford again: 85%



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