Grading 2021 Predictions
Predictions are garbage unless they are checked. So how did I do this past year? (And cumulatively?)
2021 Brier: 0.1418 (0.1116 excluding personal predictions)
Cumulative 2019–2021 Brier: 0.245 (0.143 excluding personal predictions)
I will note that I failed an implicit prediction — that I’d include VOX and SSC predictions, and I didn’t. But I didn’t assign a probability, so it stays out of my record.
Economics:
Likely — Annualized GDP Growth < 4% — 85%
Unlikely — Annualized GDP Growth <2% — 35%
False — Annualized GDP Growth <0% — 5%
True — Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 50%
False — Forbes: S&P500: 3850 (3800–3900): 20%
True — Brent Crude Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 75%
(Forbes: Price target $50)
False — …but lower than $60 a barrel: 50%
True(?) — F.1 “Wall Street and reality remain out of whack” — The market goes up more than the median wage: 70%
True — F.2 “Corporate taxes stay low” — No increase in corporate taxes is passed in 2021: 80%
False — F.3 “Cruises run aground”
Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise lines all declare bankruptcy by the end of 2021: 60%
All 3 stop operations / end cruises by end of 2021: 5%
N/A — F.4 “women lost to the U.S. labor force” — No prediction was made here.
F.5 “Colleges under threat”
False — College tuitions will rise: 75% (They rose around 1% —so less than inflation.)
Presumed False — “There are more than 1,800 private four-year colleges in the U.S.” — more than 100 private colleges will close: 5% (Getting data on this will be a pain.)
US Politics
False — F.6 “Nancy’s farewell tour” — Pelosi will announce retirement: 30%
N/A F.7 “The Reaper cometh” — No actual prediction about McConnell.
N/A F.8 “A new leader for the left” — No actual prediction.
F.9 “Trump TV”
False — Trump officially partners with OANN: 30%
False — Trump hosts a news-TV show: 15%
False — “He’ll go head-to-head against Sean Hannity in the 9 p.m. slot, and steal away Laura Ingraham to serve as his TV Veep.”: 5%
F.10 “Student debt canceled”
True* — Some student debt is cancelled: 70%
False — “Biden agrees to Senators Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren’s resolution to wipe away 50 grand of federal debt per borrower.”: 20%
(True, by default) — “The executive order bypasses Congress and survives multiple legal threats, thanks to broad wording in the Higher Education Act of 1965.” (It survives, conditional on part 1): 90%
F.11 “Habers gonna Habe” — Maggie Haberman signs a book deal: This was announced before Forbes published. It comes out in 2021: The publication date of 2022 was also already announced.
Tech:
True — SpaceX successfully launches Starship: 90%
N/A — F.12 “The internet goes private” — No actual prediction.
True — F.13 “Driverless cars will kill (again)” — There will be a fatality involving a driverless car in 2021: 85%
F.14 “Bitcoin sinks but remains a treasure” (I said I wouldn’t do crypto, but…)
True — Bitcoin hits $50k in 2021: 60%
False — Bitcoin crashes (falls by 50%): 40%
False — Bitcoin stabilizes around $20k (stays between $15k-25k during December): 10%
True — F.15 “Google settles antitrust case” — Federal case is settled: 65%
True — F.16 “A folding phone succeeds” — Motorola, Xiaomi, or Samsung releases a folding phone for under $1,000: 70%
International Relations:
True — US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 95%
True — North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 98%
True — No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 97%
True — …in any First World country: 90%
True — Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 96%
True — No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 70%
False — Netanyahu is prime minister after the Israeli elections: 75%
True — Netanyahu’s party gets the most votes: 65%
True — No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing one: 85%
True — No additional country currently in Euro or EU announces plan to leave: 97%
True — France does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%
True — Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99.5%
True — No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%
True — China’s internment camps for Muslims will remain open: 95%
True — No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%
True — No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 80%
True — F.17 “Brexit food shortages”
Temporary dislocation / news coverage of long lines and items that are unavailable: 99%
False — Longer-term disastrous shortages: 1%
False — F.18 “Boris out” — He is out of office before the end of 2021: 30%
Unclear, depends on definitions — F.19 “China vaccinates the world” — “In 2021, Chinese vaccine makers will supply more vaccines globally than Western firms”: 30%
True — Global carbon emissions will increase from 2020: 90%
Unclear — (F.20) Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020: 70%
N/A — F.21 “Virtual doc visits are here to stay” — No actual prediction
F.22 “Vaxxers beat out anti-vaxxers, narrowly”
False — Between 50% and 60% of Americans get the COVID vaccine: 30%
True — More than 60% get the vaccine: 50%
False — Fewer than 50% get the vaccine: 20%
Unclear — F.23 “Face masks will be worn on New Year’s Eve 2021” — Many people in the US will wear masks routinely (i.e. not just when sick,) at the end of 2021: 10%
True — F.24 “ACA survives another fight” — The ACA isn’t further changed by court order: 95%
Other
True — Sci-Hub is still relatively easily accessible from within US at end of year (even typing in IP directly is relatively easy): 97%
False (Probably) — US homicides will decline from 2016: 85%
False — F.25 “Jeff Bezos buys an NFL team”: 40%
False / True — F.26 “An Olympic bubble” — All / some athletes quarantined beforehand: 10%/90% (Vaccines are widely available in many countries first, but not in all.)
N/A — F.27 “Money moves to TikTok” Tiktok gets ads: It already has them.
N/A — F.28 “New summer of love”: No clear prediction
False — F.29 “A posthumous Oscar”: Chadwick Boseman wins an Oscar: 60%
N/A — F.Sports — I’m giving these a hard pass.
False — F.30 “6 Black CEOs running Fortune 500 companies” (At least) — 30%
Personal
False — I visit Oxford again: 85%
True — I take a new job / paid postdoc: 35%
False — I weigh more than 70kg at year end: 45%
True — Still living in Israel at end of year: 97%
True — I have (some) official academic affiliation: 60%
True/True/True — I publish at least 2/3/4 new papers: 90%/80%/50%
I submit my book proposal to a publisher / agent: 70%
True/True/True/True— My Google Scholar H-index hits 10 / 11 / 12 / 13: 85% / 45% / 15% / 5%
