This year definitely didn’t turn out the way I expected in January, but predictions predict the future, not what we thought. That’s kind of their point, actually. So here’s how I did, on this list. (I have had a number of other prediction sets, this just judges my 1-shot predictions that I publish yearly.)
Also, I wrote most of this back in January, but there were things unsettled, then forgot about this. So it’s going up now, in April.

Note: I put True / False at the front of each prediction to mark how it was decided.

Overall Brier Score…

David Manheim

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