This is where I predict things for the year. It’s a one-shot, but it both provides a clear public record of at least some of my predictions, and it requires me to predict on things other people are predicting, so I’m not entirely making things up to make it easy…

Predictions are garbage unless they are checked. So how did I do this past year? (And cumulatively?)

2021 Brier: 0.1418 (0.1116 excluding personal predictions)
Cumulative 2019–2021 Brier: 0.245 (0.143 excluding personal predictions)

I will note that I failed an implicit prediction — that I’d include VOX and SSC predictions, and…

This year definitely didn’t turn out the way I expected in January, but predictions predict the future, not what we thought. That’s kind of their point, actually. So here’s how I did, on this list. (I have had a number of other prediction sets, this just judges my 1-shot predictions…

Well, it’s that time of year again, when most famous prognosticators around the world given imprecise and non-judge-able claims about what the world will look like, and if they’re wrong, no-one will know.

The few and the proud, however, are willing to put our (mostly non-existent) reputations on the line…

Here’s my Annual Review.

I mark each True / False, and sometimes include [notes at the end.] Obviously, not all predictions can be scored yet, but this is for the items I do know. (I will remove /modify this line after I’ve updated again.)

My PRELIMINARY overall brier score for…

David Manheim

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