Predictions are garbage unless they are checked. So how did I do this past year? (And cumulatively?) 2021 Brier: 0.1418 (0.1116 excluding personal predictions) Cumulative 2019–2021 Brier: 0.245 (0.143 excluding personal predictions) I will note that I failed an implicit prediction — that I’d include VOX and SSC predictions, and…

This year definitely didn’t turn out the way I expected in January, but predictions predict the future, not what we thought. That’s kind of their point, actually. So here’s how I did, on this list. (I have had a number of other prediction sets, this just judges my 1-shot predictions…

People should predict things, it’s crazy that more people don’t, yadda yadda yadda. But I will say this seems to be changing — more and more people are on board with this idea. In any case, this is now my 5th round of yearly predictions — On Medium since 2017…

If you have a belief, you should be willing to bet. It’s useful as mechanism to ensure people’s claim aren’t empty signalling. It’s also good as a way to check that your claims are concrete enough to be resolvable, and that you don’t change the way you score your predictions…

Well, it’s that time of year again, when most famous prognosticators around the world given imprecise and non-judge-able claims about what the world will look like, and if they’re wrong, no-one will know. The few and the proud, however, are willing to put our (mostly non-existent) reputations on the line…

Here’s my Annual Review. I mark each True / False, and sometimes include [notes at the end.] Obviously, not all predictions can be scored yet, but this is for the items I do know. (I will remove /modify this line after I’ve updated again.) My PRELIMINARY overall brier score for…

Medium is now gated. I’ve moved. Non-gated post replacement link. I am once again making a yearly set of public predictions which I will publicly score early next year, as I did last year and the year before (as well as in other formats and/or less publicly in various forums…

Medium is now gated. I’ve moved. Non-gated post replacement link. OK, it’s (slightly after) that time of year again, and I need to make my new predictions. But you can’t improve unless you figure out how you’ve been doing, so here’s my review of last year’s predictions. …

A recent story said that there was a terrorist “planning” to attack the Italian town of Macomer (pop. approx. 10,000) by putting Ricin and Anthrax in the water supply. That sounds scary, right? First, he didn’t HAVE Anthrax or Ricin. He was planning on buying it online. Somehow. (No, no-one…