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David Manheim
David Manheim

240 Followers

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Jan 16

Grading 2022 Predictions

I have been busy, but I need to grade previous year predictions, so here goes — not all are graded or final, since we don’t have all of the data yet. US Politics True — AR.7 Republicans take control of the House: 85% (AR: 85%) False — AR.9 Republicans take control of…

Forecasting

4 min read

Forecasting

4 min read


Jan 4, 2022

2022 Predictions

This is where I predict things for the year. It’s a one-shot, but it both provides a clear public record of at least some of my predictions, and it requires me to predict on things other people are predicting, so I’m not entirely making things up to make it easy…

Predictions

4 min read

Predictions

4 min read


Jan 2, 2022

Grading 2021 Predictions

Predictions are garbage unless they are checked. So how did I do this past year? (And cumulatively?) 2021 Brier: 0.1418 (0.1116 excluding personal predictions) Cumulative 2019–2021 Brier: 0.245 (0.143 excluding personal predictions) I will note that I failed an implicit prediction — that I’d include VOX and SSC predictions, and…

Predictions

5 min read

Grading 2021 Predictions
Grading 2021 Predictions
Predictions

5 min read


Apr 7, 2021

Scoring my 2020 Predictions

This year definitely didn’t turn out the way I expected in January, but predictions predict the future, not what we thought. That’s kind of their point, actually. So here’s how I did, on this list. (I have had a number of other prediction sets, this just judges my 1-shot predictions…

Predictions

7 min read

Scoring my 2020 Predictions
Scoring my 2020 Predictions
Predictions

7 min read


Jan 4, 2021

Yearly Predictions, 2021

People should predict things, it’s crazy that more people don’t, yadda yadda yadda. But I will say this seems to be changing — more and more people are on board with this idea. In any case, this is now my 5th round of yearly predictions — On Medium since 2017…

Forecasting

7 min read

Forecasting

7 min read


Apr 5, 2020

My Bets — An Updating List

If you have a belief, you should be willing to bet. It’s useful as mechanism to ensure people’s claim aren’t empty signalling. It’s also good as a way to check that your claims are concrete enough to be resolvable, and that you don’t change the way you score your predictions…

Betting

3 min read

Betting

3 min read


Jan 8, 2020

David’s Predictions 2020!

Well, it’s that time of year again, when most famous prognosticators around the world given imprecise and non-judge-able claims about what the world will look like, and if they’re wrong, no-one will know. The few and the proud, however, are willing to put our (mostly non-existent) reputations on the line…

Predictions

6 min read

Predictions

6 min read


Dec 31, 2019

Scoring my 2019 Predictions

Here’s my Annual Review. I mark each True / False, and sometimes include [notes at the end.] Obviously, not all predictions can be scored yet, but this is for the items I do know. (I will remove /modify this line after I’ve updated again.) My PRELIMINARY overall brier score for…

Politics

8 min read

Scoring my 2019 Predictions
Scoring my 2019 Predictions
Politics

8 min read


Jan 13, 2019

My 2019 Predictions

Medium is now gated. I’ve moved. Non-gated post replacement link. I am once again making a yearly set of public predictions which I will publicly score early next year, as I did last year and the year before (as well as in other formats and/or less publicly in various forums…

Predictions

5 min read

Predictions

5 min read


Jan 12, 2019

2018 Predictions — Accuracy and Score

Medium is now gated. I’ve moved. Non-gated post replacement link. OK, it’s (slightly after) that time of year again, and I need to make my new predictions. But you can’t improve unless you figure out how you’ve been doing, so here’s my review of last year’s predictions. …

Predictions

6 min read

Predictions

6 min read

David Manheim

David Manheim

240 Followers
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