2022 Predictions

US Politics

AR.7 Republicans take control of the House: 85% (AR: 85%)


AR.12 a G20 politician is killed by a non-state drone attack: 25% (AR: 65%)


AR.31 Solar pv will account for a plurality of new US electricity capacity: 80% (AR: 90%)



Longer Term Predictions

New: Chance of another pandemic on the scale of Covid-19, or greater, occurring in the next 10 years (By 1/1/2032): 6%
(Note: 25%, from the link, is a dumb guess — especially given greater global sensitivity / alertness in the near future, but also, as I said long before COVID-19, people seem particularly bad at looking at base rates and other factors on the risk of extreme pandemics.)

Older predictions, updated to this year:

There will not be a large (1,000 people or more) uninvited ground invasion of a foreign country by the US by 2025: 92% [2020: 85%, 2021: 87%]



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