2022 Predictions

This is where I predict things for the year. It’s a one-shot, but it both provides a clear public record of at least some of my predictions, and it requires me to predict on things other people are predicting, so I’m not entirely making things up to make it easy for myself. (I still omit questions I know nothing about.) This year, they come from Vox, Antirobust, and potentially others, in which case I’ll update. (This year, none from Fortune, since they are just quoting CEOs and many of the predictions are underspecified.) It also ensures that I think about longer term predictions (see end.)

US Politics

AR.7 Republicans take control of the House: 85% (AR: 85%)

AR.9 Republicans take control of the Senate: 80% (AR: 75%)

Republicans take control of both: 79%

AR.2 Biden is president on Dec 31: 97% (AR: 95%)

AR.3 Pelosi is Speaker on Dec 31: 95% (AR: 95%)

AR.8 Ron DeSantis clearly wins FL governor re-election: 85% (AR: 80%)

V.1/AR.16 Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court: 60% (Vox: 55 percent, AR: 35%)

AR.17 There will be a Supreme court vacancy filled: 50% (AR: 305%)

V.2 US government will renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research : This is complex, and won’t take a binary outcome. Some legislation restricting this, either in the US or internationally, passes: 80%. NIH issues new regulations or guidance: 50%. A new actual ban on domestic GoF work comes into effect before 1/1/2023: 20%. (Vox: 40 percent)

V.3 A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized or legalized in at least one new US state: 60% (Vox:75 percent)

AR.14: Traffic fatalities decrease in NYC vs 2021: 40% (AR: 55%)

AR.22 Stacy Abrams clearly wins GA governor election: 35% (AR: 25%)

AR.23 Biden announces solar panels will be installed on white house grounds: 15% (AR: 25%)

International

AR.12 a G20 politician is killed by a non-state drone attack: 25% (AR: 65%)

AR.21 Russia clearly invades Ukraine using military force: 20% (AR: 30%)

Economics

AR.31 Solar pv will account for a plurality of new US electricity capacity: 80% (AR: 90%)

AR.34 US gdp grows every quarter [Seasonally adjusted]: 90% (AR: 80%)

AR.35 Facebook remains world’s biggest social media firm by monthly active users: 95% (AR: 80%)

AR.36 Coal generates at least 20% of USA’s electricity: 20% (AR: 80%)

AR.37 Solar will see its biggest single year of total US capacity additions ever: (AR: 75%)

AR.38 Bitcoin above $30k on Dec 31: 80% (AR: 75%)

Personal

(To-do)

Longer Term Predictions

New: Chance of another pandemic on the scale of Covid-19, or greater, occurring in the next 10 years (By 1/1/2032): 6%
(Note: 25%, from the link, is a dumb guess — especially given greater global sensitivity / alertness in the near future, but also, as I said long before COVID-19, people seem particularly bad at looking at base rates and other factors on the risk of extreme pandemics.)

Older predictions, updated to this year:

There will not be a large (1,000 people or more) uninvited ground invasion of a foreign country by the US by 2025: 92% [2020: 85%, 2021: 87%]

Nuclear weapons will not be used before 2025: 95% [2020:85%, 2021: 91%]

No new countries (with the possible exception of Israel) will test or otherwise announce possession of nuclear weapons before 2025: 80% [2020: 80%, 2021: 75%]

There will be no new inter-state war killing more than 1m / 500k / 250k people before 2025: 93% / 88% / 70% [2020:80% / 75% / 40%, 2021: 90% / 80% / 55%]

SpaceX will land a rocket / a human on Mars by 2030: 50% / 15% [2020: 40% / 20%, 2021: 45% / 20% (It seems increasingly likely that they can’t get there in Starship without humans on board, but they could launch something in Starship that they then send to Mars, which I think counts for part 1.)]

SpaceX will still have significant plans for going to Mars in 2030: 92% [2020:75%, 2021: 90%]

Based on JThompson:

JT.1 Very few people will be using flying taxis, other than those already using conventional flying taxis.
Fewer than 25,000 flying cars are sold in 2029: 70% [2020:60%, 2021: 60%]

JT.2 Very few people will be being driven by autonomous vehicles.
Less than 5%/25%/75% of cars manufactured in the US in 2029 will be capable of autonomous operation (level 5:) 3% / 15% / 50% [2020:15%/40%/85%, 2021: 3% / 20% / 55%]
Autonomous L5 operation will not yet be legal in most US States: 10% [2020:40%, 2021: 10%]

JT.3 Most cars will be powered by internal combustion engines.
More than 5%/25%/50%/90% of cars sold in 2029 will be internal combustion: 60% / 35% / 10% / 2% [2020: 90%/65%/55%/15%, 2021: 80% / 55% / 15% / 10%]

Broken , Removed— (It was explained to me that these were underspecified and possibly obviated already.) JT.4 Batteries will be only a little better than they are at the moment.

JT.5 People all over the world will be richer and healthier.
Global average lifespan will be higher than in 2019: 87% [2020: 80%, 2021:85%]
Fewer than 0.5 billion will live in absolute poverty: 75% [2020:75%, 75%]
Median per capita global income in 2029 (in USD as of 2020,) will be above $5,000/$10,000/$15,000: 90% / 60% / 20% [2020:85%/65%/25%, 2021: 90% / 60% / 20%]

JT.6 Population growth will stabilize, except in Africa.
In 2029, global population growth outside of Africa will be below 0.5%/0.25%/0%: 70% / 50% / 20% [2020:60%/40%/10%, 2021: 65% / 45% / 10%]
In 2029, population growth in Africa will be below 1%/0.75%: 95% / 80%[2020: 95%/80%, 2021: 95% / 75%]

A song written via computer-generation of lyrics and music, and performed fully digitally without a human singer / musician, not (necessarily) involving AGI or general ability to communicate with others, will make the billboard top-100 (Or will qualify based on sales and play-time, but be ruled out for technical reasons, such as because it is computer generated,) by 2030/2040: 80%/ 85% [2020: 70%/90%, 2021: 70%/ 75%]