2018 Predictions — Accuracy and Score

US Politics

No — Democrats take the senate: 45%
(The seats up for grabs are largely Democrat controlled — hard to make inroads.)


I SUCK AT THIS, as the past two years should make clear. (And if you think you can do better, why aren’t you rich? (Alfred, you don’t need to respond, I know.)) But I still think there’s a real chance that the bubbles pop — and even if they don’t, I expect the pace of growth to slow once the regular capital markets have put in their money.

Global Catastrophic Risks

AI Progress indicators -

Scott’s Prediction Topics (His Numbers)

Yes — 1. Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 98% (95%)
Yes — 2. Democrats take control of the House in midterms: 55% (80%)
No— 3. Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms: 45% (50%)
No— 4. Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him): 20% (50%) [I assume almost immediately being relaunched by appointing him an independent counsel or equivalent after firing doesn’t count. If it does, I probably agree with Scott.]
Correct— 5. Mueller does not indict Trump: 80% (70%) [I can’t see him indicting Trump. I think there will be a report with arguably indictable offenses, but even so it very well may come out in 2019.] ( I’m happy to have called what now seems inevitable in the comment.)
No — 6. PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of year: 60% (60%) [Biden and Warren are more viable choices, and Bernie is really old. But this is predicting the prediction, so I’m less certain about this than I am that he won’t be the nominee.] (Beto and Kamala Harris are on top. And given that Obama beat Hillary, I should have remembered that new people would show up. This was stupidly overconfident)
Yes — 7. PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year: 95% (95%)
No— 9. Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed: 80% (70%)
Correct— 10. No major health-care reform legislation gets passed: 90% (95%) (I predicted this right after the individual mandate was repealed at the end of 2017, it seems, so yeah.)
Correct- 11. No large-scale deportation of Dreamers: 95% (90%) (Not that they figured anything out, but it hasn’t been mass deportations.)
Correct — 12. US government shuts down again sometime in 2018: 60% (50%) (I was correct by a hair. )
Correct — 13. Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year: 95% (90%)
No. — 14. …lower than 40%: 60% (50%)
WAITING ON SCOTT — 15. GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research: 70% (80%) [This is WAY outside my wheelhouse, here.]



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