Medium is now gated. I’ve moved. Non-gated post replacement link.

(This is preliminary, since a few of the data points aren’t in, and I need to check what Scott over at SSC says on a few prediction resolutions which I left to his judgement.)

Brier Score: 0.108
Log Score: -0.348

As with last year, I was slightly under-confident based on the results, but I got lucky on a few of these. (Of course I did, that’s the way predictions under uncertainty work!)

Of [50–60%) predictions, I got 2 right and 3 wrong, for a score of 40%
Of [60–70%) predictions, I got 8 right and 3 wrong, for a score of 73%
Of [70–80%) predictions, I got 6 right and 2 wrong, for a score of 75%
Of [80–90%) predictions, I got 11 right and 1 wrong, for a score of 92%
Of [90–95%) predictions, I got 9 right and 0 wrong, for a score of 100%
Of [95–99%) predictions, I got 11 right and 0 wrong, for a score of 100%
Of [99+%] predictions, I got 4 right and 0 wrong, for a score of 100%

Predictions:
GDP Growth: (I’m using 2.2% — the number isn’t anywhere near final, but it’s good enough to score these with.)

Yes:
< 4% — 90%
lower than in 2015: 60%

No: <2% — 40%
<0% — 5%

Yes: Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 80%

Yes: Repeal of Obamacare, including the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules — 80% (End of year:I got lucky on this one — the December tax bill repealed the mandate.)

No: Conditional on above, Republicans have replacement policies already passed — 5% (End of year: I think I was overconfident here, but I was right.)

These are basically just Slatestarcodex 2016 Predictions, 2017 redux: (Numbers to show which were skipped.)

Yes — 1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 90%
Yes — 2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 98%
Yes — 4. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 95%
Yes — 5. …in any First World country: 80%
Yes — 7. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 95%
Yes — 9. No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 95%
Yes — 13. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%
Yes — 15. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing one: 65% (End of year: Iran’s getting hot, though…)
Yes — 18. No country currently in Euro or EU announces plan to leave: 95%
Yes — 35. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%
Yes — 45. SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: 80%
Yes — 48. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%
Yes — 49. No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 80%

Yes — Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 40% (Begin year note: But last year I was surprised — maybe I’m not well calibrated here. Or maybe something about markets, irrationality, and solvency. End year Note: No, I’m badly calibrated.

Yes — Lightning Networks / Segwit will be deployed: 65%

No — There will be a major bug found and exploited in LN/Segwit: 60%

Yes — Ethereum will be above $10: 70%

Yes — Ethereum will be above $20: 30%

Yes — Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3): 25%

Yes — Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3): 75%

Yes — There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) — 98%

There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) — 95%

The Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections: 40%

There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) — 70%

The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) — 60%

(Added 1/9/2017. I have left out ones I already forecast above, from last year. His estimate in Parentheses)

WORLD EVENTS
Yes — 5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 90% (80%)
Yes — 7. No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 70% (80%)
Yes — 9. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 75% (90%)
(?) Waiting for SSC Judgement, but yes — 10. Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 85% (70%)
Yes — 11. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 80% (60%)
Yes — 13. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 65% (50%) (Wikipedia: “it controlled no meaningful territory by November 2017”)
Who Knows — 15. Libya to remain a mess: Unclearly defined — 50% to 100% (80%)
I was right, but unclear score — 16. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: [No guess — unsure if a cemented status quo with recognition is “resolved” — which seems likely.] (80%)
Yes — 17. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 99% [ China doesn’t let things get to that point any more. They intervene before it can get that large; it’s either toppled gov’t, or nothing like this.] (95%)
Yes — 19. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 80% (90%)
(?) — 20. No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 90% I don’t follow this, so I’m mostly relying on Scott’s estimate (90%)
No — 21. EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun: 50% [No date announced, and there is a launch backlog for cubesats in the US. These things don’t happen quickly.] (70%)
Yes — 22. A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 95% — if it launches, this will become clear quickly. (80%)
Yes — 23. A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work. [If it launches, it’s game over.] Conditional: 10% if launched before November, 90% if not. (60%)
No — 26. Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 80% (70%)

EUROPE
Yes — 27. No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: [Exclusing England, which has no actual plan, 90%](80%)
Yes — 28. France does not declare plan to leave EU: 97% (95%)
Yes — 29. Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99% (99%)
Yes — 30. No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 90% (80%)
Yes — 31. The UK triggers Article 50: 80% (90%)
Yes — 32. Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: [Conditional on her running] 50% (60%)
Yes — 33. Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 70% (60%)
Yes — 34. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 80% (80%)
(?) Yes — 35. Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: [to Europe? Unsure. But the flow is slowing, it seems. 95% (95%)

ECONOMICS
Yes— 37. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: [Brent? I guess.] 70% (60%) (It dropped, but then came back.)
No — 38. …but lower than $60 a barrel: 50% (60%)
Yes — 39. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 60% (50%)
Yes — 40. Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 65% (50%)

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
Yes — 41. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 95% (90%)
Yes — 42. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 90% (80%)
No — 43. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 50% (80%)
Yes — 44. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 95% (90%)
No — 45. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 50% (60%)
No — 46. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 40% (60%)
Yes— 47. US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA: 80% (90%)
Yes— 48. US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy: 80% (95%)
Yes— 49. No race riot killing > 5 people: 80% (95%)
No — 50. US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia: [How do you measure half? Also, congress does this, not president. So…] 60%[?] (70%)
Yes — 51. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 90% (80%)
Yes — 52. …lower than forty percent: [It’s only 41% now, and they typically drop — and the big exception is G.W.B., after 9/11.] 75% (60%)

And I’m not predicting his blog traffic or his life. But…
(?) 60. Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of this year: [I’m a bit hopeful — but I’ll follow his judgement on what happened…] 80% (90%)

(?) Bonus: Scott’s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse [I’m gonna eyeball this one, I can’t think of a good metric.]: 90%

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