People should predict things, it’s crazy that more people don’t, yadda yadda yadda. But I will say this seems to be changing — more and more people are on board with this idea. In any case, this is now my 5th round of yearly predictions — On Medium since 2017, and on predictionbook in 2016. I’ve also been scoring them every year, though it often takes a while for data for some questions to show up.

As a change, I think I’ll re-predict all of my past predictions (with modifications or omissions for obsolete questions,) as well as some new…










David Manheim

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